In memory of famous investor Byron Wien, who was known for his list of 10 surprises each year, we provide our own list of potential economic, financial, and political surprises for 2025.

Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley and continued publishing it at Blackstone until his death in 2023.

A concept is considered a “surprise” if the average investor assigns it a less than 1 in 3 chance of occurring, but we estimate it has a greater than 50% probability.

The list

1. Elon Musk and President Trump have a falling out

The spotlight may not be large enough to accommodate both personalities indefinitely.

2. DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) proves inefficient

It is often more efficient to have a single leader than multiple competing ones. Many similar initiatives have historically struggled against entrenched government bureaucracy.

3. China successfully stimulates its economy

While President Xi began pivoting toward stimulus in late 2024, further policy actions in 2025 support stronger economic growth.

4. No interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025

U.S. economic growth may be supported by deregulation and targeted tax cuts (tips, Social Security, and overtime), while inflation remains sticky. As activity strengthens, rates remain elevated. Additionally, with U.S. debt at 121.6% of GDP, Treasury issuance pressure keeps yields higher.

5. Mitch McConnell becomes an obstacle to parts of Trump’s agenda

With little political downside, McConnell resists isolationist shifts within the GOP, blocks certain controversial nominations, and continues support for Ukraine policy.

6. “Drill, baby, drill” does not lead to lower energy prices

U.S. energy companies remain disciplined, prioritizing shareholder returns over production expansion. Meanwhile, sanctions on Iran reduce global supply, offsetting U.S. output gains.

7. Deportation efforts are constrained by local authorities

Not all municipalities are willing to lose low-wage labor, resulting in fewer deportations than political targets suggest.

8. Syria does not become “another Libya”

Syria’s emerging leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa secures international funding and begins reconstruction while forming a coalition government with Islamic-oriented governance.

9. Trump brings peace to the Middle East

Weakened regional actors such as Iran and Hezbollah, combined with aggressive diplomacy and unpredictability, lead to a peace agreement framework.

10. Creation of a new government department: “Kiss the Ring”

A symbolic new department is established, fully funded by tech industry influence.

Happy New Year