Quarterly Letter Archive

Fourth Quarter 2020

Easing & Excess

Now that the POTUS Twitter handle has changed hands, we no longer lose sleep worried how a late-night tweet will affect our portfolios.
Third Quarter 2020

Reverse Polish Notation

The current stock market has something in common with reverse Polish notation. For those unfamiliar with financial calculators, reverse Polish notation requires that you input the numbers first and the operation that you want to perform on them second. Initially, it feels counterintuitive and takes some getting used to, but in the end, you get why it works. Although not a perfect analogy, it sounds a bit like current stock valuations.
Second Quarter 2020


Economists, strategists and market pundits heatedly debate the use of quantitative easing (QE) and the way it affects asset prices. With the enormous amount of QE this year ($3 trillion and counting), we are dedicating our second quarter letter to explaining QE and its potential effects on both the economy and portfolios.  
First Quarter 2020


The pain is palpable for the globe, our country, the world’s citizens and risk assets. Never have we felt so truly unsafe.  
Fourth Quarter 2019


Bombs and tweets are flying!  BallooningFederal debt, a trade war with China, disruptions in the repo market, impeachment proceedings … no problem. The Federal Reserve has our back. President Trump no longer has unkind words for Fed Chairman Jay Powell, nor should he. With the way the Fed is pumping liquidity into this market, both lowering interest rates and buying Treasury bills, President Trump should give him a medal! Rapidly rising stock prices coincided with the increased liquidity.
Third Quarter 2019


In the midst of a global slowdown, the U.S.has been the best house in a bad neighborhood. The dominos of negative economic data keep falling, and we're edging closer to the tipping point into a recession. The Fed says the U.S. economy is sound and their two rate cuts are simply due to potential trade war risks that haven’t fully materialized. Can we still achieve a soft landing? Or, will we reach a point of no return where a trade deal will be too late and incapable of reversing the negative economic trends we see?
Second Quarter 2019

Expect more volatility ahead with every tweet and news report.

As one of our favorite strategist’s said, “Investors continue to be beholden to the actions of three people –Powell, Trump, and Xi. Chair Powell is unelected, President Trump is unpredictable, and President Xi is largely unaccountable.”
First Quarter 2019


Eighty-nine percent of assets handed investors losses in 2018, more than any year since 1901. The correlation of asset types continues in 2019, but in the opposite direction.
Fourth Quarter 2018

What have the markets been telling us?
And what do we expect for 2019?

The storm clouds we saw gathering at the end of the 3rd quarter pelted us with rain, and we don’t see beautiful clear skies ahead. Increased volatility is here to stay, with very few places to hide. 
Third Quarter 2018


Increased volatility in individual stocks continues to be the theme in the third quarter. Despite storm clouds hovering, the market has vaulted higher. FOMO (fear of missing out), cash on the sidelines, problems in markets outside the US and algorithmic trading have tested even the most patient investors. We continue to be patient, not willing to chase shiny objects. Cash doesn’t burn holes in our pockets, as cash is keeping pace with inflation and outperforming bonds.

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2x Wealth Group is a team at Ingalls & Snyder, LLC., 1325 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019-6066.
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