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February 3, 2020
Robinhood, Reddit, Gamestop and You
The Making of a Financial Flash Mob
By 2X Wealth Group
Who doesn’t love the story of David’s triumph over Goliath? This past week a group of “small” investors made tremendous amounts of money (on paper at least) by buying stocks that were heavily shorted by large, sophisticated hedge funds. 

We explore what happened, factors that spurred the market disruption, the subsequent fallout still unfolding, and finally, what it all means going forward. 

What Happened?

First, it’s important to understand three concepts - short selling, call options, and a short squeeze. 

If an investor wants to profit from a stock declining in value, they can short the stock. Most understand the concept of buying stock, but shorting is more complicated. Shorting involves selling a stock that you don’t own. So, how do you sell something that you don’t own? The answer is - you borrow the stock through your brokerage firm, and you must put up money to do so. The broker requires that you maintain a balance large enough to repurchase the borrowed stock at any time. Therein lies the risk. 

If you buy a stock, the most you can lose is the amount you paid. In other words, the value of your investment can only go to zero. If you short a stock, however, there is no limit to the amount you can lose. If forced to close the position, you must buy back the stock you sold regardless of its price.  

Regulators, aware of the limitless loss potential, have more stringent rules and requirements for short sellers which relate to both net worth and the experience of the investor. As a result, it is rare to see individual investors short stocks. In the story of last week, the Goliaths (hedge funds) were short a number of stocks (GameStop, BlackBerry, AMC and Bed, Bath and Beyond to name a few) where they thought the companies’ business models were flawed and their stocks would decline significantly.   

Enter David (not just one, but a bunch of ‘Davids’) who used a Reddit message board called WallStreetBets to encourage other Davids to join them in buying the stocks of these heavily shorted companies. David, with relatively small amounts of money, caused a great deal of pain to the sophisticated Goliaths who were short these stocks. The Davids were able to create big price moves with small amounts of cash not only because of their sheer number, but also through the use of call options (a way to gain leveraged exposure to a stock). The Goliaths may have been rich and sophisticated, but they were vulnerable, and a few of those Davids figured out how to exploit them. 

The Davids concentrated buying created a “short squeeze”, making the short positions held by the Goliaths more and more expensive to maintain. To understand the magnitude of this disruption, take GME, for example. The stock closed out 2020 at $18.85 a share and at the high last week, traded at $483, an increase of 2500%. 

At first, the Goliaths were able to maintain their short positions by raising capital from outside investors and/or selling other stocks they owned. But when the Davids (and copycats including some professionals no doubt) were undeterred, at least several Goliaths capitulated and reluctantly bought back their short positions, locking in sizable losses. Even Goliath doesn’t have limitless capital.  

The fans cheered. David (the little guy) had defeated Goliath (the big bad hedge funds). 

A ‘Perfect Storm’ Set the Stage 

A confluence of factors led to the market spectacle last week. We name several of the important ones below.  

Robinhood and other online trading platforms perpetuated easy and cheap access to trading. Commissions were eliminated. Robinhood clients could trade from their phone and their requirements with regard to both net worth and investor experience (including option trading) were less stringent than at other brokers. These changes led to increased retail trading activity, which rose from 15% to 20% of total trades in the past year. Further, retail options trading volumes currently exceed those of institutions. 

Changes in SEC Rules
Over the last several years, the SEC has attempted to level the playing field for all investors regarding company information, disclosure rules and access to short positioning data. This access to information provided kindling for the fire.  

Social Boredom
With reduced ability to bet on sports or go to casinos, gamblers increasingly traded options. In this way, the recent disruption was similar to the Dutch tulip bubble of 1636 – explained by some as “no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of a vibrant tulip market.” 

Social Media
Social media financial sites have exploded, with WallStreetBets growing to 2 million followers during the pandemic and increasing to 6 million as the short squeeze played out. The power of social media aided and abetted the Davids. 

Populist Resentment Toward Wall Street
After the Financial Crisis, many Reddit posts reference how people were hurt when the financial crisis hit and were furious that Wall Street had no consequences. There are references to “getting” the hedge funds and acting as a group to accomplish a goal. Some see the current situation as an online continuation of the Occupy Wall Street movement. 

Call Option Feedback Loop
Although not a new financial instrument, call options (contracts to purchase shares at an agreed upon price per share) are a leveraged way to take advantage of a rising stock price. Rather than buying thes hares outright, the purchase of call options allowed the Davids to control a large amount of stock with a much smaller initial outlay of cash. The high volume of call option purchases pushed stock prices even higher, as market makers who sold the call options were required to buy more of the underlying stock to satisfy regulatory requirements. This process promoted a vicious upward cycle in price. 

Easy Money Conditions  
A recent piece in the Washington post, by Maureen O'Hara, mentions two historical examples of ‘easy money’ creating problems. “The Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, in an observation that resonates today, argued in 1898 that bubbles are attributable to interest rates that are too low. In 1929 — we know what happened in the markets then — the Dutch economist historian, N.W. Posthumus, cited the entrance of nonprofessional buyers fueled by credit. In this view, today’s Federal Reserve and the Reddit crowd would seem natural culprits.” In other words, extremely low interest rates make risk taking more attractive. 

The Fallout

Robinhood restricted trading in the heavily traded stocks and needed to raise capital. 
It is no surprise that Robinhood had to raise capital. Total trading last Wednesday was higher than in any other market disruption in the past 20 years, including the dot com bust and the failure of Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis. 

The SEC rules require brokers to maintain a certain amount of capital as a ratio of outstanding trades to ensure timely settlement. Given the inordinate volume of trading last week, Robinhood was concerned they might breach those net capital requirements unless they slowed trading and raised more capital. Chief executive Vlad Tenev said a clearinghouse requested ‘around $3 billion’.   

Hedge funds, such as Melvin Capital, lost over 50%.
Hedge fund losses created turmoil not only in the heavily shorted stocks but also in other stock prices as the funds may have been forced to sell winners to shore up capital.  

Some investors (big and small) took advantage of the windfall. 
There are reports of people paying off student loans and home mortgages with gains from these stocks, and according to Bloomberg, a teachers’ retirement fund was able to sell one of their losing positions for $500million. 

The remaining holders of inflated stock are likely to lose money.
The value of a stock is only worth as much as someone else is willing to pay for it. Although the stock prices of these heavily shorted stocks have gone up, their business models remain flawed. As the short squeezes abate, one would expect the prices of these companies to go back to reflecting their economic value. Some individual investors could have substantial losses and lose their newfound enthusiasm for participating in the stock market.  

What does all of this mean? 

The public may view shorting stocks as an aggressive trading practice. Shorting offers an important function, however, by providing an efficient allocation of capital in shifting money away from poor business models to more productive ones.   

Nothing is truly free. 
Politicians and uninformed investors may have believed that Robinhood was helping the ‘have nots’, but in fact Robinhood has been in bed with the ‘haves’ from the beginning. Robinhood didn’t charge investors commissions, but they were making millions of dollars selling order flow to market makers such as Citadel Securities, giving these institutions the legal opportunity to get in front of the retail client trades.  Many think this process affected the quality of trade execution by effectively allowing a legal version of front running. As the adage goes, if you are not paying for the product you are the product.

Will brokerage firms, market makers and hedge funds change the way they do business?  
  • Possible regulatory changes include increasing restrictions on options trading and increasing margin requirements on positions. Further, regulators could tackle re-hypothecation – a practice where broker-dealers re-use collateral in margin accounts. This practice allowed short positions above 100% of the GME shares that were available to trade (the float).
  • Faster trade settlement periods would reduce the time clearinghouses have counterparty exposure in volatile markets.
  •  Hedge funds are likely to avoid short sales of smaller, less liquid companies.
  • Selling information about order flow could become illegal.  
  • As congress examines these issues, they may scrutinize and restrict other non-productive hedge fund practices such as high frequency trading.
 Can a market disruption like last week happen again?
Market manias have a long history, and they persist despite regulators best intentions. History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes. The current environment is one of easy money - where the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to make it easier for banks to lend and for borrowers to secure loans. The consequence of ‘easy money’ is asset inflation of one type or another.  

Now more than ever, caveat emptor– let the buyer beware.

The material included herein is not to be reproduced or distributed to others without the Firm’s express written consent. This material is being provided for informational purposes, and is not intended to be a formal research report, a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any accounts should be handled. Any opinions expressed in this material are only current opinions and while the information contained is believed to be reliable there is no representation that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and no assurance can be given that a specific investment objective will be achieved.  

The Firm accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material. However, Federal and state securities laws impose liabilities under certain circumstances on persons who act in good faith and nothing herein shall constitute a waiver or other limitation of any rights that an investor may have under Federal or state securities laws.

2x Wealth Group is a team at Ingalls & Snyder, LLC.,1325 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019-6066 |
(212) 269-7757

October 28, 2020
Tricky Times

Markets hate uncertainty, and we can’t remember an election with such potential disparate outcomes. As we speak, the presidential race looks closer than ever, and the Senate majority is in question. Meanwhile the pandemic rages, and the President and Congress can’t agree on a stimulus plan. It’s no surprise stock market volatility has risen.  

BY 2X Wealth Group
September 15, 2020
Ash & Anxiety In the Air

Fires are burning. The presidential election has never been more heated, and our whole election process is repeatedly questioned. The cold war with China continues to brew regardless of the political party in power. A global pandemic has taken hundreds of thousands of lives and jobs, created loneliness for our seniors, and caused those entering hospitals for medical procedures to endure alone.

BY lori Zager & lisa James
June 11, 2020
Rip Van Winkle fell asleep after ringing in the New Year in 2020  

He woke up today and asked us for an update. We explained there was a global pandemic that had claimed almost 400,000 lives worldwide and more than 100,000 in the United States.

BY lori Zager & lisa James
March 30, 2020
Contagion and Containment:
How can we treat our ailing financial markets?

Medical experts say widespread lockdowns and social distancing must happen to contain the coronavirus and avoid overwhelming our hospital system.

March 19, 2020
The S&P 500 Catches
the Coronavirus

Bombs and tweets couldn’t sink the S&P 500, but Covid-19 did.

December 20, 2019
Why Gold Often Glitters

While there is a role for gold in a diversified portfolio, gold is not universally liked or owned by investors and wealth managers.

September 23, 2019
Alarming Spike Last Week in Banks' Short-term Funding Costs

The rates on overnight repurchase agreements, known as repos, suddenly rose above 9% last week.

May 30, 2019
Why do We Care About the Shape of the Yield Curve? What Does it Tell Us?

We never really know where markets and the economy are headed, but market participants constantly look for clues.

Lisa James
November 15, 2018
The Art of the deal

Why does the current market tone feel different from the February and March stock market selloffs? 

Lori Zager & Lisa James
June 5, 2018
What role do Bonds play in your portfolio?

When do they protect you? When do they hurt you?

Lisa James & Lori Zager
March 22, 2018
Rising Interest rates? Inflation? How do they affect you?

The 10-year US Treasury bond bottomed in July of 2016. Since then, the interest rate on the 10-year has more than doubled from 1.39% to 2.9%.

Lori Zager & Lisa James
February 8, 2018
Volatile Markets

Worst Day Ever for the Dow Jones Industrial Average!

Lisa James & Lori Zager
November 20, 2017
Concerned about buying at the top

Perspective As the current bull market ages (from the bear market end in March 2009) investors are increasingly worried about buying at the peak.

Lori Zager
August 1, 2017
The Difference Between An ETF And A Mutual Fund

The basic difference between a mutual fund and an exchange traded fund (ETF) is that an ETF trades like a common stock as its price changes throughout the trading day.

Lori Zager
June 9, 2016
Brexit Flight to Quality

Brexit is spurring a flight to quality move into US Treasuries.

Lori Zager
June 1, 2016
Does it make sense to buy dividend paying stocks?

The short answer is yes.

Lori Zager

The views and opinions expressed in the posts on this page  are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or views of Ingalls & Snyder, LLC.  Certain content on this page were originally  posted in a personal blog maintained and operated independently by the author prior to joining Ingalls & Snyder, LLC. 

The content on this page are for informational purposes, and is not intended to be a formal research report, a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any accounts should be handled. Any opinions expressed in this material are only current opinions and while the information contained is believed to be reliable there is no representation that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.  Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and no assurance can be given that a specific investment objective will be achieved.